US Midterms 2026: Can Trump Keep Congress? Polls, Key Races & What's at Stake
On November 3, Americans vote in the 2026 midterm elections, and for Donald Trump the stakes could not be higher. Every House seat and 35 Senate seats are up for grabs, Trump's approval is near a record low of about 37%, and Democrats lead the national polls by around 9 points. Here's everything you need to know: the latest polls, the key races, what the Iran war has to do with it, and what happens if Republicans lose Congress.
US Midterms 2026 at a Glance
- Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
- What's up for election: all 435 House seats, 35 of 100 Senate seats and 36 governorships
- House now: Republicans 218, Democrats 214 (218 needed for a majority)
- Senate now: Republicans 53, Democrats 47 (including two independents)
- Trump's approval: about 37% approve, 60% disapprove (Silver Bulletin average)
- Polls: Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot by about 9 points
- Top issue: cost of living, including gas prices, housing and healthcare
Why These Midterms Matter So Much for Trump
For the first half of Trump's second term, Republicans have controlled the White House, the House and the Senate. That has let Trump push his agenda through Congress with little resistance. The midterms could end that.
- If Democrats win the House, they can block Trump's bills, launch investigations into his administration and even begin impeachment proceedings.
- If Democrats win the Senate, they can block his judicial and Supreme Court nominees.
- If Republicans hold both, Trump keeps a free hand for the final two years of his term.
Trump's Approval Rating: Near a Historic Low
Trump heads into Election Day deeply unpopular. The Silver Bulletin polling average puts him at 37% approve and 60.2% disapprove, a net rating of about -23, close to his all-time low. Some individual polls are even worse: CNN/SSRS and Reuters/Ipsos both have him 35 points underwater.
According to the New York Times, Trump's approval going into these midterms is the second lowest of any president since 1946, behind only Harry Truman. For comparison, in 2018 Trump was about 10 points underwater, and Democrats went on to gain 41 House seats.
The biggest problem is the economy. On inflation and the cost of living, only 25% of Americans approve of Trump's performance, while 71% disapprove.
Battle for Congress: What Each Party Needs
The House
Republicans have a razor-thin majority: 218 seats to the Democrats' 214, with one independent who sits with Republicans and two vacancies. Democrats need a net gain of only about three seats to take control. Analyst Todd Belt predicts Democrats could gain around 15 seats, but Republican-led redistricting in several southern states gives the GOP an edge in some districts.
The Senate
The Senate is harder for Democrats. Republicans hold 53 seats, so Democrats must flip a net four seats to reach 51. A 50–50 tie would leave Republicans in control, because Vice President JD Vance casts the tie-breaking vote.
Senate Races to Watch
| State | Race | Recent polling |
|---|---|---|
| Maine | Susan Collins (R) vs Troy Jackson (D) | Jackson ahead by 2–4 |
| North Carolina | Michael Whatley (R) vs Roy Cooper (D) | Cooper ahead by 10+ |
| Ohio | Jon Husted (R) vs Sherrod Brown (D) | Brown ahead by 1–8 |
| Texas | Ken Paxton (R) vs James Talarico (D) | Talarico ahead by 2–6 |
| Alaska | Dan Sullivan (R) vs Mary Peltola (D) | Peltola ahead by 2–7 |
| Iowa | Ashley Hinson (R) vs Josh Turek (D) | Toss-up |
| Kansas | Roger Marshall (R) vs Adam Hamilton (D) | Hamilton ahead by 1–5 |
| Nebraska | Pete Ricketts (R) vs Dan Osborn (Ind) | Competitive, few polls |
| Michigan | Mike Rogers (R) vs Abdul El-Sayed (D) | El-Sayed ahead by 1–7 |
| Georgia | Jon Ossoff (D) vs Mike Collins (R) | Ossoff ahead by about 8 |
| New Hampshire | John E. Sununu (R) vs Chris Pappas (D) | Pappas ahead by about 7 |
Polls are a snapshot, not a prediction. They have been wrong before, and close races can swing either way.
The Iran War Factor
The US–Iran war, now eight months old, hangs over the election. The Pentagon estimates it has cost American taxpayers $47.1 billion, and higher gas prices caused by disruption in the Strait of Hormuz have weighed on Republican candidates.
Trump has kept his options open. Asked about new strikes on Iran after the election, he said "anything's possible," and the AP reports that US officials have warned allies to prepare for possible military action after November 3. At a rally in Texas, Trump said the war could end "in a couple of weeks."
What History Tells Us
The president's party usually loses seats in the midterms. The generic ballot at this stage has often pointed to the result:
- 2018: Democrats led by 7.6 points and gained 41 House seats.
- 2010: Republicans led by 6.9 points and gained 63 seats.
- 2022: Republicans led by 2.7 points and won the House by 9 seats.
- 2026: Democrats lead by about 9 points.
When Will We Know the Results?
The first polls close at 6pm Eastern time on November 3, which is 4am on November 4 in Pakistan. Early results will come through the night, but some close races can take days or even weeks to count. If no Senate candidate in Georgia wins a majority, there will be a runoff on December 1. The new Congress will be sworn in on January 3, 2027.
Frequently Asked Questions
When are the 2026 US midterm elections?
Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
Who is expected to win the 2026 midterms?
Polls favour the Democrats, who lead the generic ballot by about 9 points and need only about three more seats to win the House. The Senate is closer: Democrats must gain four seats.
What is Trump's approval rating before the midterms?
About 37% approve and 60% disapprove according to the Silver Bulletin average, one of the lowest ratings for any president before a midterm since 1946.
What happens if Democrats win the House?
They could block Trump's legislation, investigate his administration and start impeachment proceedings.
What time will midterm results come out in Pakistan?
The first polls close at 6pm Eastern time, which is 4am Pakistan time on November 4. Results will continue through the day.
We will update this article with live results after polls close. Follow us for the latest US election news.
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